Ocean temps predict US heat waves 50 days out, study finds

Pacific pattern often forms in advance of hot days in the eastern US research from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, as reported in release for Eurek Alerts.

"At 50 days out, the scientists were able to predict an increase in the odds--from about 1 in 6 to about 1 in 4--that a heat wave would strike somewhere in the eastern U.S. during a given week. At 30 days out or closer, the scientists were able to predict an increase in the odds--to better than 1 in 2 for a particularly well-formed pattern--that a heat wave would strike on a particular day."

These are sea surface temperature anomalies in the mid-latitude Pacific 50 days in advance of June 29, 2012. The pattern inside the green box resembled the Pacific Extreme Pattern, indicating that there would be an increase in the odds of a heat wave in the eastern half of the United States at the end of June.